• What: Michigan State vs. Nebraska
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 390 (MSU broadcast), 389 (Nebraska broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 7-2 and ranked No. 25 in the Coaches Poll and just outside the top 25 in the Associated Press poll, though both of those polls are hastily done and groupthink. As the season goes along, Kenpom.com and the NET rankings will be more credible measurements. Nebraska is 6-1 and unranked in both major polls, but receiving votes in both.
• Betting line: MSU -5.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 714-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Nebraska — Fred Hoiberg is 184-151 in his 11th season as a collegiate head coach, including 69-95 in his sixth season with the Huskers.
• Series: MSU leads 23-10 all-time, including 16-4 since the Huskers joined the Big Ten. MSU, though, lost last season’s only meeting, 77-70 at Nebraska, after the Spartans had won 11 straight against the Huskers.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.3
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.4
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.4
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.7
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.8
Nebraska
C (34) Braxton Meah (7-1) 4.3
PF (4) Juwan Gary (6-6) 10.7
SF (3) Brice Williams (6-7) 18.4
G (0) Connor Essegian (6-4) 14.7
PG (24) Rollie Worster (6-5) 8.9
• MSU update: The Spartans are fresh off a 90-72 win at Minnesota on Wednesday night in their Big Ten opener, which was just about a wire-to-wire domination of the Gophers. MSU has a chance to get to 2-0 in the Big Ten if it can beat Nebraska, before stepping back out of conference play for three more games — against Oakland in Detroit on Dec. 17, home against Florida Atlantic on Dec. 21, and home against Western Michigan on Dec. 30. If the Spartans win Saturday’s game against the Huskers, they’ve got a great opportunity to be 11-2 when they jump back into Big Ten play in January. MSU is 7-2 and playing well in large part because they’re a top 40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency and near the top of college basketball in 2-point shooting percentage (59.1%) and free-throw shooting (78.8%), meaning they’re scoring a ton of points in the paint and in transition.
• Nebraska update: The Huskers have been better than expected and perhaps I should have expected more, given that this is a program coming off his its first NCAA tournament appearance in a decade, with two mainstays returning in wing Brice Williams and forward Juwan Gary. Had center Rienk Mast been healthy and available this season (he gave MSU fits a year ago), this is definitely an NCAA tournament-caliber team. It might be anyway. Nebraska is ranked 44th in Kenpom, with a double-digit road win over a Creighton team that just beat Kansas and a lone loss, by three points, on a neutral court to a good Saint Mary’s program.
• Matchup analysis: The Huskers have been pretty sound defensively, leaning into veteran forward Juwan Gary as an anchor. Brice Williams is a sizable wing who can score at multiple levels. He’s been a consistent force. What’s really helped offensively, though, is the play of Wisconsin transfer Connor Essegian, who’s hit 20 of 45 3-point tries this year and gives the Huskers that dangerous outside shooter they had a year ago in Keisei Tominaga. This Nebraska team will miss center Rienk Mast all season, because there’s no way to make up for what he provided as an interior passer and creator. But the Huskers have replaced his size, going 7-1 and 6-10 on the starting front line with Washington transfer Braxton Meah and UCLA transfer Berke Buyuktuncel, though the 6-10 Buyuktuncel missed their win over North Florida on Sunday with an injury. If he’s not back, Nebraska is likely to go smaller with Gary at the 4 spot.
Whatever Nebraska’s lineup, MSU’s three-guard starting trio of Jeremy Fears Jr., Tre Holloman and Jaden Akins has provided enough juice out of the gate the last two games, with Jaxon Kohler and Szymon Zapala inside, that it’s hard to imagine MSU altering its starting group. Besides, MSU is playing 10 players considerable minutes right now and reacting to performances in real time with lineup decisions. That’ll continue, regardless of the opponent. But this is a tougher beast than Minnesota, one that’ll challenge MSU on the wing especially.
• Prediction: MSU has become a team whose effort, focus, free-throw shooting and rebounding you can trust. That’s a formula for a lot of wins this season. If MSU hits seven or more 3-pointers, I think the Spartans win this game without sweating out the final couple minutes. But if their shooting struggles return, Nebraska has the goods to make this a fist fight to the wire.
• Make it: MSU 78, Nebraska 70
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Nebraska: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
