BLOOMINGTON, Ind. − When No. 22 Michigan basketball takes the Assembly Hall court on Saturday against Indiana, it has the potential to be one of the strangest environments for a mid-February Big Ten basketball game in recent memory.
IU coach Mike Woodson and the program announced Friday this season would be his last, but he will finish out the year. Meanwhile, U-M’s Dusty May is from just up the road, he ran out of his allotment of tickets in just minutes and could be on the shortlist of coaches Indiana pursues to replace Woodson, all as he makes his head-coaching debut as a visitor at his alma mater.
With all of that going on, U-M is still in the thick of the Big Ten title chase. Here are three keys and a prediction for the Wolverines’ (17-5, 9-2 Big Ten) game against the Hoosiers (14-9, 4-7 Big Ten) in Bloomington (1 p.m., CBS).
MUST READ: Michigan basketball’s Dusty May gets homecoming moment in return to Indiana
Coaching dynamic
For most of the week, the coaching discussion around this game was about May’s return home. As has been repeated at length this year, and certainly this week, May attended Indiana and was a student manager for legendary coach Bob Knight (1996-2000), as well as a graduate assistant later on.
His wife, Anna, detailed to the Free Press the meaning of this homecoming for the family, though both she and her husband vowed the focus has never left the game.
Then, the rumblings from Bloomington began mid-week, and by Friday, IU brass had no choice but to address it.
“During a meeting with Coach Woodson on Wednesday, he informed me he wanted to step down as our program’s head coach at the end of the current season. He said it had been weighing on his mind for a while, and that it was an emotional and difficult decision,” IU athletic director Scott Dolson said in a statement Friday. “It’s clear to me from our discussions in the last several days that his No. 1 priority is for the attention to be off him, and instead focused on uniting Hoosier Nation in support of our student-athletes, coaches, and, most importantly, the program.
“We still have much to play for this season as we prepare for Saturday’s game against Michigan and the remainder of the 2024-25 season, and we want to encourage Hoosier fans to rally around the program and support it in the same positive way that Hoosier fans did during Mike’s All-America and Big Ten MVP playing career.”
How Indiana got here
It has been another underwhelming season for Indiana, which is sort of the theme for Woodson’s tenure.
He has a four-year record of 77-49 (36-36 Big Ten). Woodson took IU to the NCAA tournament in his first two seasons, but they won just one game, a First Four game against Wyoming in the 2023 tourney.
Indiana technically tied for second in the Big Ten that year, but was one of a jumble of teams at 12-8 in league play. The program missed March Madness last year, at 19-14 overall, and then after a solid start to this year, the wheels fell off.
The Hoosiers were 13-3 and 4-1 in Big Ten play after beating USC on Jan. 8. Since then, though, IU is just 1-6, with four consecutive losses.
Fifth-year big man Oumar Ballo, by way of Gonzaga and Arizona, is the leader, essentially averaging a double-double (14 points and 9.9 rebounds per game) in his first season at IU. Sophomore Mackenzie Mgbako (13.2. points, 4.7 rebounds) has taken a step forward and Malik Reneau (12.1 points, 5.5 rebounds) continues to be effective, while Washington State transfer point guard Myles Rice (11.5 points), who missed his freshman season dealing with cancer, has been effective at time, but in spurts.
Senior Luke Goode has been a nice transfer from Illinois, averaging 8.8 points on 42-40-90 splits. But fifth-year wing Trey Galloway hasn’t progressed enough, shooting just 34.3% on 3s with too many turnovers.
Michigan’s must-do’s
The last time U-M came to this state, it turned the ball over a season-high 22 times in a 27-point loss to Purdue. The Wolverines, who are averaging nearly 15 giveaways a game, would be letting the opposing crowd a chance to get in the game if they give the Hoosiers free points.
Likewise, U-M will need to be physical. IU doesn’t have skilled shooters, but the Hoosiers have high-level talent and plenty of size to disrupt. U-M needs to make sure it runs the Hoosiers off their spots.
And the Wolverines will need to play through their stars. It’s a welcome sign when Nimari Burnett, WIll Tschetter or Roddy Gayle Jr.(who has struggled) deliver15 points, but this team runs through point guard Tre Donaldson and the “Area-51” bigs, Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf.
Indiana is No. 55 in KenPom, but other than being No. 8 in average height (at 6 feet 7), is not top-50 in a single category.
Prediction
There are two main possibilities: Either Indiana turns on itself, the locker room implodes and U-M arrives at just the right time to capitalize with a road win. Or, it’s one last-ditch effort as the Hoosiers rally for Woodson. As much as this is a proud hoops state, and Woodson’s players are motivated, this team is essentially buried this year. U-M just needs to carefully help shut the casket door. The pick U-M 74, Indiana 66.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs Indiana: Prediction for Dusty May homecoming
