• What: Michigan State at Michigan
• When: 8 p.m. Friday
• Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 84 (Michigan broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 21-5 overall, 12-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 13 in the Coaches poll, No. 14 in The Associated Press poll, and is No. 14 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 19 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Michigan is 20-5 overall, 12-2 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 12 in both the Coaches and AP poll. The Wolverines are No. 19 nationally, per Kenpom, and 17 in the NET rankings.
• Projected betting line: Michigan -2 (via Kenpom’s projection)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 728-300 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Michigan — Dusty May is 146-74 in his seventh season as a head coach. This is his first season at Michigan after six seasons at Florida Atlantic.
• Series: Michigan leads 105-89 all-time. The teams split the two meetings last season. They’ll face each other a second time this season on March 9 at Breslin Center.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.2
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.2
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.1
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 10.4
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.0
Michigan
F (50) Vladislav Goldin (7-1) 15.7
F (1) Danny Wolf (7-1) 12.9
G (4) Nimari Burnett (6-5) 10.1
G (15) Rubin Jones (6-5) 3.6
G (3) Tre Donaldson (6-3) 12.7
• MSU update: The Spartans have found their footing again, winning at Illinois and then at home against Purdue to set up this opportunity Friday night at Michigan, where a victory would mean MSU would be alone in first place, a half-game up on the Wolverines. The Spartans lead the Big Ten in a lot of categories in conference play, per Kenpom: Defensive efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage, 3-point defense, free-throw percentage, block rate and assists per field goals made. Their weakness remains 3-point shooting, where they’re 32% in conference games. MSU only took 12 and 13 3-pointers, respectively, in their last two wins, making five in each game, after going 4-for-23 in the loss to Indiana.
MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State’s 75-66 win over Purdue
• Michigan update: The Wolverines have won six straight games, all by four points or less, most recently 86-83 at Ohio State on Sunday. They’ve put themselves in a great spot to win the Big Ten, if they can beat the Spartans on Friday night and go up two games in the loss column on the rest of the league. Dusty May put together a roster that works well together — a couple holdovers in the rotation in wing Nimari Burnett and reserve 4-man Will Tschetter, and six transfers, most notably the 7-footer tandem of Danny Wolf (Yale) and Vladislov Goldin (Florida Atlantic), along with guards Tre Donaldson (Auburn) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio State). Donaldson is technically the Wolverines’ point guard, though Michigan runs a lot of its offense through Wolf up top in ball-screen action.
• Key matchup: Danny Wolf might be the best transfer portal find and evaluation in the country. The idea of having two 7-footers play alongside each other only works if one of them can create away from the rim. Wolf is a point forward, who’s been terrific getting downhill and working off ball screens — often with Vladislov Goldin. He and Goldin actually make each other better. Wolf’s ability to make outside shots off the dribble — he’s 26 for 72 on the season on 3s (36%) — forces opponents to guard him up top. The big question, as it is for any team, is how MSU handles Wolf and Goldin in ball screens and who guards Wolf, when Goldin is going to occupy Carson Cooper or Szymon Zapala. There are four different options for MSU in guarding Wolf when both 7-footers are in the game — Jaxon Kohler, Xavier Booker, Frankie Fidler and Coen Carr. Kohler will start on Wolf. In terms of size, rebounding and having an offensive game that might pull Wolf away from the basket, Kohler might be the best play. Booker could also have one of those days where he’s engaged and his athletic ability and skill is a difference-maker.
The key is to make Wolf as uncomfortable as possible on both ends. MSU shouldn’t just give into the matchup based solely on what makes most sense defensively. If Coen Carr can pester Wolf well enough, then perhaps play Carr at power forward for a stretch to make Wolf deal with him in transition and on the other end. Same for Fidler, who would pull Wolf away from the basket defensively. My sense, however, is that MSU will mostly stay big, if the Spartans can stay out of foul trouble. This is one of those games where MSU might have to alter its plan based on what’s working and what isn’t. The coaching staff has been pretty good at that this season. This is also an MSU defense that can switch and is built to help in gaps, so it’s more nuanced than which guy is on Wolf. But I think MSU has some matchups that could be a pain for Wolf to defend.
• How MSU wins: Michigan has a couple weaknesses — mostly, they turn the ball over more than anyone in the Big Ten and don’t force many turnovers themselves. MSU’s superpower is not any individual player. It’s its collective momentum. The Spartans usually find a stretch where they start turning a team over and get out on the break, Coen Carr starts catching alley-oops and, importantly, the Spartans have used those stretches to change the game and keep control. If they can get Danny Wolf and Tre Donaldson to turn it over and play enough of this game in transition, they’ll be in good shape. The rest of their offense often opens up when that happens.
Michigan also isn’t all that good on the defensive glass, which also plays into one of MSU’s strengths. The Spartans offensive rebounding percentage of 36.8%, per kenpom, leads the Big Ten in conference games. We’ve seen what second-chance opportunities can do for this MSU team. If the Spartans create turnovers that lead to transition buckets — like they did against Purdue — and have success on the offensive glass — like at Illinois — they’ll likely win this game, as long as they make a 3-pointer or two.
• How Michigan wins: It starts with Michigan taking care of the basketball. MSU can get stagnant with its half-court offense when there aren’t opportunities to find rhythm in transition. If the Wolverines can bait the Spartans into outside shots — taking anymore than 15 3s is not the game MSU wants to be playing — and the Spartans struggle to make them, as they often do, then Michigan will likely be playing from out front. The Wolverines also are a pretty good outside shooting team and, while MSU took that away from Purdue for the most part, dealing with Danny Wolf and Vladislov Goldin will take enough of MSU’s attention that MSU probably won’t be able to lock onto Tre Donaldson and Nimari Burnett the same way. This is likely to be a close game. Michigan hasn’t played a home game decided by more than four points since Jan. 12 and MSU hasn’t been beaten by more than eight all season. In a game that comes down to the final minute, the Wolverines have the better track record, partly because this is a team that usually gets good shots. That goes for throughout the game, too.
MORE: Couch: From Jaxon Kohler on down, MSU reignited the possibilities for this season by winning how it did at Illinois
• Prediction: I don’t hate this matchup for MSU, but I could also be entirely wrong about that. I think a couple of Michigan’s issues play into what MSU does well and that the Spartans are well enough equipped to counter the Wolverines’ strengths. I can picture MSU winning this game, which hasn’t always been the case in recent years at Crisler Center. That said, while Michigan is perhaps due for some late-game bad luck or regression, there’s been no sign of it.
• Make it: Michigan 77, MSU 73
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Michigan: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
